My Miss Aurelia is the deserving morning line favorite for the race off the strength of her 5 ½ length romp over Stopshoppingmaria in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes early last month at Belmont Park, but it’s an undefeated daughter of Empire Maker that I like the most right now. Grace Hall won her debut at Delaware Park by three lengths in late July before winning the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes over the gifted Judy the Beauty. She followed that win up with a easy three length score in the Blue Hen Stakes at Delaware Park on October 1^st, winning in a hand ride after contesting the lead. So far all three wins by Grace Hall have been accomplished with just a hand ride, implying there is much more to this filly than we have seen so far.

My Miss Aurelia ran a huge race in the Frizette, capturing the race in front-running fashion by more than five lengths, and defeating Stopshoppingmaria handily for the second time in her three race career. She also defeated third place finisher Miss Netta in the Frizette, a filly I think has a lot of potential to movfe forward in the Juvenile Fillies today. My Miss Aurelia is a daughter of Smart Strike and is owned by Barbara Banke, wife to the late Jess Jackson of Curlin and Rachel Alexandra fame. I think the greatest weakness for this filly could be her front-running tactics, even though juvenile fillies have fared very well in recent years running on the front end, I think there are some very classy fillies behind her this time that will not let her run away in the stretch.

Weemissfrankie is the undisputed leader of West Coast juvenile fillies after back-to-back Grade 1 wins in the Del Mar Debutante Stakes and most recently in the Oak Leaf Stakes where she ran down the very talented Candrea, who is also slated to take part in the Breeders’ Cup. She could not have been more impressive in her Oak Leaf score where she ran down Candrea just before the wire, closing from fifth place and coming into the stretch four wide, while still catching the leader and winning by half a length under a vigorous hand ride. She ran a fantastic :59.20 five furlong work one week ago at Santa Anita to signal how fit and ready she is to run.

Miss Netta has raced just two times in her short career so far, but has shown incredible potential. She broke her maiden at first asking, taking a six furlong at Saratoga in late August but almost three lengths, running on the lead from gate, to wire. Her next start came in the Frizette Stakes (gr.1) at Belmont Park where she just happened to run into the monster we know as My Miss Aurelia, finishing a distant, but decisive third. On paper her performance looks back, but it was actually very good. She broke awkwardly, immediately dropping four lengths off the field and running very greenly for jockey Rajiv Maragh. By the time My Miss Aurelia was approaching the far turn, Miss Netta was far more than twelve lengths off the back of the pack, but began to eat up the ground and settle for Rajiv Maragh as they entered the far turn. Coming into the stretch My Miss Aurelia was pulling well clear of Stopshoppingmaria up front, but Miss Netta was flying home fastest of all, running an incredible race to get up for third, finishing almost three lengths ahead of Holiday Soiree in fourth. She could be sitting on a huge race at Churchill Downs today and her :46.87 bullet work at Belmont last weekend proves she is coming into this race very sharp.

Candrea ran a big race in the Oak Leaf Stakes (gr.1), a race that in most cases would have been a winning race if not for Weemissfrankie. She pressed the pace in second, took over from the pacesetter coming into the stretch and began to draw off and accelerate approaching the wire. Unfortunately for her, Weemissfrankie was just too good and flew by her on the outside late to snag the win by half a length. This Bob Baffert trained filly won the first two starts of her career by a combined 7 ½ lengths. She likes to sit close to the pace and launch her bid off the turn, tactics that will keep her close to the front-running My Miss Aurelia in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies if she has the speed. She had a good :48.80 half mile breeze at Churchill Downs recently and is another that looks like a candidate to run a good race.

Since I don’t have time to handicap the entire field, I tried to choose three long-shot fillies that I think have the best shots at hitting the board for a price. My first is two-time stakes winner, Say a Novena. This filly has won three of her six career starts so far and most recently captured the Brandywine Stakes at Parx Racing after missing by one length in the Sorority Stakes at Monmouth Park in early September. Her biggest problem is that she has never run past seven furlongs yet, but in all of her stakes tries, which make up her last four consecutive starts, she has finished running well and never tired late. She could be a nice value if she runs well today with morning line odds of 30-1.

Awesome Belle has taken the same course to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies that 2010 Juvenile winner Awesome Feather took, and they just happen to both be daughters of Awesome of Course. Awesome Belle enters the Juvenile off a 7 ½ length romp in the 1 1/16 mile My Dear Girl Stakes at Calder Race Course. The My Dear Girl Stakes is the final race in the Florida Stallion Series which Awesome Feather won last year. This year Awesome Belle didn’t fare as well, finishing fifth in the Desert Vixen Stakes after a bad trip in the stretch, and finished third in the Susan’s Girl Stakes after finding herself in tight quarters and unable to catch the top two. I think she’s beginning to improve and really good shot to hit the board. Her morning line odds are 20-1 and her most recent work was a :48.20 half mile move at Calder.

Rocket Twentyone is undefeated in two starts, but most recently captured the Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes (gr.2) at Arlington Park on September 10^th. The one thing she will seriously need to improve on is her speed is she hopes to finish in the top half of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies field. She ran the one mile Arlington-Washing Lassie in a slow time of 1:39.13, and has been working up to the race equally as slow. As a daughter of Indian Charlie you know she has a chance to improve, but it’s highly doubtful she can win. Maybe hit the board, and with odds of 20-1 it might be worth a shot.

So there are my three long-shot choices, of the three I like Awesome Belle much the best. Of the top five fillies in the field I like Grace Hall, Miss Netta, Weemissfrankie, and My Miss Aurelia in that order. Good luck to all and enjoy the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Friday card.

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Winter Memories will undoubtedly be bet down as the heavy favorite by post time, but Summer Soiree will be a very strong second choice. Both fillies have racked up four wins in five start this year, both won the first Grade 1 of their career in their most recent starts. The similarities stop there. Winter Memories possesses perhaps the most deadly turn of foot seen in the United States since Goldikova dismantled her third-consecutive Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr.1) last fall. She usually drops to the rear of the field, bides her time until finding a clear path in the stretch, and then unleashes an unearthly rally that propels her to the lead within a matter of moments. In her last start Winter Memories created a stunning moment of brilliance when she won the Garden City Stakes (gr.1). After entering the stretch dead last, with nowhere to go behind a wall of horses, jockey Javier Castellano moved the El Prado filly into the clear just a few strides before the finish and the talented filly responded with an explosion that thrust her neck ahead at the wire. She will enter the Queen Elizabeth off just two works, but fitness will not be an issue.

Summer Soiree’s forte is speed, she wants the lead from the moment the gates spring open. This daughter of War Front started her year with a 9 ¾ length romp at Oaklawn Park in a 1 1/16 mile allowance race on the dirt, then followed that up with a powerful 10 ¾ length win in the 1 mile Grade 3 Bourbonette Oaks over Turfway Park’s synthetic surface. Less than two months later, Summer Soiree finished 10^th in the Kentucky Oaks (gr.1) after setting the pace and fading in the stretch. Brought back in the 1 1/16 mile Boiling Springs Stakes (gr.3) on the Monmouth Park turf course, the Graham Motion trained filly again romped by 8 ½ lengths. Brought back two months later, Summer Soiree again set the pace in the 1 1/8 mile Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, and just lasted for the win by a half length over fellow Queen Elizabeth entrants Star Billing, and Nereid. She enters off three works, and in typical War Front-offspring fashion, they are speedy, solid works that will have this filly ready to once again run strong on the front end. She’ll be facing the toughest closer of her career in Winter Memories, which means she’ll have to run the race of a lifetime to win. The distance is 1 1/8 miles once again, so she will have to run better than she did in the Del Mar Oaks if she wants to hold on for the win this time.

When you look past the top two in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes one several names pop out from entry list; 2010Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr.1) winner More Than Real, Pucker Up Stakes winner Marketing Mix, Del Mar Oaks runner-up Star Billing as well as Del Mar Oaks third place finisher Nereid, and Together, runner-up in the First Lady Stakes (gr.1) last weekend at Keeneland. [Read the complete post here on Distaff Runner at Horse Racing Nation]

On Saturday, Havre de Grace will go for her third Grade 1 win of the year, when she comes to Belmont Park for the first time in her career, to contest the 72^nd Beldame Stakes (gr.1). A short field of five fillies has been entered in the Beldame, including brilliant 3-year-old filly Royal Delta, dual Grade 1 winner Life at Ten and graded stakes winner Satans Quick Chick. The Larry Jones trained Havre de Grace has turned in just two works since her exciting romp against the boys on September 3rd, most recently turning in an easy 1:02.20 five furlong breeze at Delaware Park Monday. Fitness will not be an issue for the 4-year-old Saint Liam filly. She’s conquered everyone except Blind Luck this year, so if she’s feeling as good as she’s been feeling since March, there might be no stopping her in the Beldame. [To read the complete post and see Royal Delta's chances of winning, click here to visit HRN Distaff Runner blog]

You know something special has taken place in the racing world when three days after an event, the web is still abuzz with news and online forums are lit-up with excited back and forth debates and chatter. That is exactly what Winter Memories scintillating performance in the Garden City Stakes has evoked since her dazzling turn of foot at Belmont Park Saturday. I won’t linger over the details of Winter Memories bad trip again, as that has been exhaustively covered in the last three days, but there are interesting things worth noting about her win.

When Winter Memories wins, she does it with little or no help from the jockey. Some will disagree with me on this, but the rider switch to Javier Castellano, who I think is a terrific rider, did absolutely nothing to help Winter Memories pick up her first Grade 1 win. Castellano gave her a terrible ride, forcing her lose position after breaking well and running comfortably in behind the pacesetters approaching the first turn, then keeping her under a strangle hold and allowing horses to block her path to the outside as the field navigated the turn. Entering the stretch it was clear to everyone that Castellano had Winter Memories in what appeared to be an impossible position and still he did nothing, waiting instead until the final furlong when Hungry Island moved up on the outside to swing Winter Memories into the clear. Please don’t misunderstand the point I am trying to make here, which is not to bash Javier Castellano, but to praise the ability of Winter Memories to rouse herself to such a super-horse effort and win. Despite not being allowed to run her race until the final furlong of the stretch, the El Prado filly traveled her final 1/8 of a mile in an astounding 10.6. That is unheard of in racing. Even a sub-11 final 1/8 is unheard of, and the fact that she did it in a hand ride and was eased just before hitting the wire makes it all the more astonishing.

She received a 93 Beyer in the Garden City Stakes which at first glance may seem low, but keep in mind she wasn’t able to utilize the length of the stretch this time like she was in the Lake George Stakes where she received a career best 95 Beyer. Imagine what she might have been assigned if allowed clear running room.

It appears the final start of 2011 for the Jimmy Toner trained filly will be in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (gr.1) at Keeneland on October 15th. Winter Memories would almost surely meet Grade 1 winner Summer Soiree in the Queen Elizabeth II, which would set up for one of most exciting turf filly matchups of the year. Summer Soiree has lost just once this year, much like Winter Memories, though she finished far up the track in 10th while contesting the Kentucky Oaks. Since then the War Front filly has done no wrong, winning the Grade 3 Boiling Springs Stakes by more than eight lengths, and capturing the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks by half a length in her most recent start. Summer Soiree started the year with two runaway wins before finishing out of the money in the Kentucky Oaks; First a 9 ¾ length allowance romp which she followed up with a 10 ¾ length rout in the Grade 3 Bourbonette Oaks in late March. The Queen Elizabeth II should be an excellent match up, and with Hungry Island and possibly Pucker Up (gr.3) winner, Marketing Mix, also heading to the Queen Elizabeth, this field is beginning to look Breeders’ Cup worthy. [Read the complete post about Winter Memories, Goldikova and Black Caviar at HRN on Distaff Runner]

Winter Memories turned in the worst effort of her brilliant career last month when she finished fourth in the Woodford Reserve Lake Placid Stakes (gr.2) after enduring a horrible trip boxed in on the rails. Now, the four-time graded stakes winner returns Saturday to defend her reputation against a strong field of eight sophomore fillies on Belmont Park’s inner turf course.

Despite finishing out of the money in the Lake Placid, Winter Memories will still go off a solid favorite in the Garden City Stakes (gr.1) off the strength of her three consecutive graded stakes scores earlier this year. Starting in mid-May the striking gray filly won the Grade 3 Appalachian Stakes, Grade 2 Sands Points Stakes and the Grade 2 Lake George Stakes, all in dominant fashion. After breaking from post five in a field of seven in the Woodford Reserve Lake Placid, Winter Memories got pinned down on the rail as the field navigated the far turn and struggled to find a gap to run through as the field entered the homestretch. She finally managed to work her way through an opening on the inside and find clear running room, but by that time it was too late, and Hungry Island was well on her way to winning. In seven lifetime starts the El Prado filly has crossed the line ahead of the pack five times and finished second once. Her only unplaced effort came in the Lake Placid. She enters the Garden City Stakes off two five furlongs works. Her last move was a fairly slow 1:03.48 move over Belmont’s Inner Turf course, but still ranked as the fastest of three moves at the distance. There is little doubt she is the class of this field, and that’s saying a lot when you consider there are three other graded stakes winners running, not to mention two black-type stakes winners. She’s the type of filly that makes you think she’s a once in a lifetime kind of talent. [Read the complete story here on Distaff Runner at Horse Racing Nation]

A solid field of nine juvenile fillies has been entered in the 120^th running of the Spinaway Stakes (Gr.1) set to be run this Sunday. The Spinaway is one of the most prestigious, and coveted stakes races in the nation for juvenile fillies, and has proven to be the launching pad for many a championship season. Back in 1904 Tanya captured the prized event before making history by winning the Belmont Stakes the next year. During the course of the next century, hallowed names like Top Flight, Cicada, Affectionately and Ruffian joined the roster of winners, further enhancing the validation of the Spinaway as a championship defining race. More recently R Heat Lightning took home the top spot in 2010, before launching a stunning early season campaign in 2011 that saw her win the Davona Dale and Gulfstream Oaks by more than 15 combined lengths. Case in point; The Spinaway is an extremely valuable commodity.

This year it appears to be a showdown between Judy the Beauty, and Georgie’s Angel. Georgie’s Angel hails from the barn of red-hot trainer Todd Pletcher, and is the only graded stakes winner in the field, and thus the favorite. She began her career on July fourth at Churchill Downs, defeating nine other fillies by more than six lengths, while posting a winning time of :51.23, just over a second off the track record for the 4 ½ furlongs. Brought back just 18 days later in Saratoga’s Grade 3 Schuylerville Stakes, the Bellamy Road filly broke fastest of all but was quickly taken in hand by jockey John Velazquez and dropped back to rate mid-pack on the inside. Coming off the turn Georgie’s Angel drove four wide and swept to the lead, easily holding off a late closing True Feelings by a comfortable 1 ½ lengths. [Read the complete post here on Distaff Runner at Horse Racing Nation]

What is the measure of a man? For as long as pen and parchment have existed, and man first discovered the power and influence of words, there has been a desire to record, and question, the accomplishments of others. From Julius Caesar, to Leonardo da Vinci, Queen Victoria, and Martin Luther King, great figureheads in history have been put through countless tests to measure their worth in a million different areas of proficiency. Perhaps the question we need to be asking coming into Saturday’s Woodward Stakes is this: What is the measure of a filly?

Havre de Grace has been under constant and ever-increasing scrutiny, since she gave Champion Blind Luck one of the most testing races of her career in the Delaware Oaks (gr.2) on July 10^th last year. The two fillies have since established one of the greatest rivalries thoroughbred horse racing have ever seen. Five times Havre de Grace and Blind Luck have faced each other since last July, and never has another horse finished between them. Havre de Grace began the year with an impressive score by more than three lengths over her nemesis in the Azeri Stakes (gr.3). She humbled the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr.1) field, minus Blind Luck, in her next start before capturing the Obeah Stakes (gr.3) with breathtaking ease. She locked in mortal combat the entire length of the Delaware Park stretch in her next start, proving tough-as-nails once again while finishing second to Blind Luck, defeated by a nose for the win in the Delaware Handicap (gr.2). [Read the complete post on Distaff Runner at Horse Racing Nation]

The Pacific Classic (Gr.1) attracted 18 nominations with a field of twelve or more possible to run in the $1 million event. With main divisional rival Havre de Grace heading to the Woodward Stakes (Gr.1) at Saratoga on September 3^rd for her first meeting with males, Blind Luck’s trainer Jerry Hollendorfer ruled out possible runs in both the August 28^th Personal Ensign and Woodward Stakes, stating the champion filly would stay home for her next race. There are two options on the table for Blind Luck, The Pacific Classic this weekend, and the Lady’s Secret Stakes (Gr.1) on October 1^st. The logical choice is the Pacific Classic as Havre de Grace will be heading for a prestigious showdown with the males in early September and could gain a lead in the race for the Horse of the Year with a win. If Hollendorfer really wants to give Blind Luck her best shot at winning another championship this year, he’ll send her against the males.

The Pollard’s Vision filly is currently undefeated in two starts at the 1 ¼ mile distance of the Pacific Classic, winning the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga last year, and most recently capturing a thrilling rendition of the Delaware Handicap (gr.2) on July 16^th. Both races were won by a neck and a nose over Havre de Grace.

Blind Luck has been training exceptionally well over Del Mar’s all weather track in preparation for her  next start, starting with a strong 1:00.00 flat five furlong breeze on July 29^th that she followed up with a 1:00.40 five furlong work one week later on August 5^th. Her two latest works are identical six furlong moves that she completed in 1:13.40, completing the last breeze on August 17^th. She is scheduled to make put in her final work on August 24^th.

The Pacific Classic has a strong prospective field lining up to face the female champion if she runs, including two Grade 1 winners, and three multiple graded stakes winners. Leading the cast of older male stars are Grade 1 winners Game On Dude and Twirling Candy, most recently seen finishing second and third respectively in the Hollywood Gold Cup (Gr.1) behind now retired First Dude.

Game One Dude turned in a :59.20 five furlong bullet in preparation for the Pacific Classic on Tuesday and will enter the race off six straight works, all very strong.

Twirling Candy has proven to be somewhat of a disappointment this yea. Sfter capturing the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes in late December and taking the Strub Stakes (gr.2) in early February with ease, many expected the Candy Ride colt to seize control of the Older Male division. After 5^th place finishes in the Santa Anita Handicap (gr.1) and a third place finish in the Hollywood Gold Cup, his status is very shaky. He enters off three straight bullet works and appears ready to run the best 1 ¼ mile race of his life.

Other possible starters include multiple graded stakes winners Bourbon Bay and Jeranimo as well as Tres Borrachos, Caracortado and Seksuko.

The big question is this — Can Blind Luck continue to be as devastating against the males as she has proven to be against the filly and mare division for the last two years? With chances that a large field could be entered looking good, I’d say Blind Luck has an excellent shot at winning the Pacific Classic, earning her 6^th Grade 1 win and fourth consecutive graded stakes victory. Over the years she has shown how immensely talented she is closing into slow fractions from far back in the pack and running down loose-on-the-lead type frontrunners. She will most likely get a strong pace to close into in the Classic and will have a perfectly tailored 1 ¼ mile journey. If she does enter the Pacific Classic and wins she makes a very strong case for Horse of the Year honors and should be a shoe in for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. If on the other hand she loses all eyes will turn to Havre de Grace in the Woodward. I say may the best horse win in the Pacific Classic and the race for Horse of the Year. And I think that horse is Blind Luck. [Originally posted on Horse Racing Nation: Distaff Runner]

Already having competed in four Breeders’ Cups, beginning in 2007, Awesome Gem could be headed for a fifth attempt this year. Virtually all options are open to the extremely versatile son of Awesome Again as he has competed in two Breeders’ Cup Classics, the Breeders’ Cup Mile, and the Breeders’ Cup Marathon last year. I count myself as a big fan of Awesome Gem and will be rooting for him to continue making it big the remainder of his memorable career.

Royal Delta faced a very strong field in the Alabama Stakes on Saturday, and absolutely throttled her competition with remarkable ease. Breaking from post position number one, Royal Delta got off to a perfect start, out-breaking Plum Pretty, but eased up a bit by jockey Jose Lezcano to rate just behind that one. Sitting in third for most of the race behind the Kentucky Oaks winner, and dual Grade 1 winner It’s Tricky, Royal Delta rated patiently for Lezcano down the backstretch as longshot Pinch Pie ran half a length clear of St. John’s River with Inglorious a length behind in last. Entering the far turn It’s Tricky began to ramp up the pressure, ranging up on the outside of Plum Pretty entering the stretch as Royal Delta began her move. Into the turn it looked like a replay of the Coaching Club American Oaks was about to get under way with Plum Pretty and It’s Tricky battling it out on the front end, just noses apart. Royal Delta came driving off the turn, two lengths behind the top pair and swung into the clear by Lezcano. Far back Inglorious had dropped more than ten lengths behind.

Midway down the stretch Royal Delta inched up to It’s Tricky, brushing lightly with her opponent and then exploded to the lead, opening up by more than 5 lengths as she flashed under the line. It’s Tricky got up for second, 1 length ahead of Pinch Pie with Plum Pretty another 3 lengths back in fourth. St. John’s River never showed her late running drive and finished 5 lengths behind Plum Pretty. Inglorious never threatened, finished last, more than 20 lengths in back of St. John’s River.

In my Alabama post last weekend I noted that Royal Delta always seems to run big in her second race off a break and she certainly did. It makes you wonder what would have happened in the Mother Goose if she hadn’t missed the race with a foot bruise. She looks much the best right now and has certainly thrown her shoe in the ring for divisional honors. All she needs is a few more big wins in graded stakes and she’s in. It always sounds easy, but if this filly competes the rest of the year with no adverse effects of injuries I think it’s very possible.

Summer Soiree turned in a huge performance on the Del Mar turf Saturday, going almost gate-to-wire in the Del Mar Oaks, for her second consecutive graded stakes win, and third of the year overall. Bolting from post position three like a filly possessed, Summer Soiree took command of the field moving into the first turn and was quickly joined on the outside by Nereid and Dynamo. Going past the stands for the first time Dynamo took the lead from Summer Soiree, going through an opening quarter in :23.14 and taken a hold of by jockey Joel Rosario. Entering the backstretch Summer Soiree switched to the outside, just three parts of a length behind in second. With the final turn still to come, Summer Soiree suddenly pulled to the lead, under a strangled hold from Gabriel Saez. Nereid sat more than four lengths back in third as Cambina  raced far back, second last. Entering the far turn Summer Soiree continued to blaze the way and quickly opened up by ten lengths. Blazing off the turn the War Front filly poured it on for all she was worth, Star Billing and Nereid both storming closer with every stride. From the back of the pack Cambina exploded with a spectacular closing rally, closing in on the leaders with quick, determined strides. Approaching the wire Summer Soiree’s lead began to diminish, from four lengths down to two. With a final desperate effort, Summer Soiree managed to hold off the charging cavalry for a thrilling half length win over Star Billing. Nereid finished a nose back in second with Cambina coming up 2 lengths short in her rally.

The 1 1/8 mile Del Mar Oaks was Summer Soiree’s first Grade 1 win and fourth win in five starts this year. Where she goes next is undecided but she has proven an extremely brilliant runner with dominant victories on dirt, synthetic and now turf. She appears best suited to races no longer than 1 1/16 miles where he incredible turn of foot propels her to huge margins of victory and could be a strong contender for either the Filly and Mare Sprint or Turf Sprint at the Breeders’ Cup this fall.