Rail Runner

The Observations of a Horse Racing Enthusiast

A little bit of Luck, Backtalk and Wood

Posted by Brian Appleton on April 2, 2010

Eskendereya

This weekend is beyond a doubt all about the nation’s best three-year-olds with a trio of important Kentucky Derby preps laden with talented youngsters each slated to be run. One of the main attractions, and the single race that will be generating the most interest, is the Wood Memorial (gr.1). With a field of six highly touted and equally talented colts entered in the Wood, it would seem strange to say that one colt will no doubt go off a heavy favorite. When you’re talking about Eskendereya though, there’s not much strange about him. After starting the year off with a jovial gate-to-wire allowance triumph, Eskendereya set the bar excruciatingly high when taking the Fountain of Youth Stakes in an 8 ½ length romp, earning a 106 speed figure, the highest Beyer for any three-year-old so far this year. The Fountain of Youth continues to be the most dominant Derby prep display of the year, thus Eskendereya’s lofty favoritism not only for the Wood Memorial but also for the Kentucky Derby.

Impressive Gotham Stakes (gr.3) winner and European invader Awesome Act looks to have the best chance of taking down the heavy favorite by most accounts. His Gotham victory was deceptively easy and although the horses he defeated in the Gotham were not the top tier of the Derby trail, it was the way in which he won that warrants respect. His huge strides propelled him from fourth at the top of the stretch, to first in a matter of seconds and with red-hot jockey Julien Leparoux aboard once again, you know he’ll have as good a chance as any other contender at a favorable trip.

The ever persistent and ultra-consistent Jackson Bend is back for another crack at Eskendereya after finishing a distant second to him in the Fountain of Youth. Although he has never finished worse than second and the only two

Jackson Bend

losses of his entire career have come against high-class colts, people still doubt that this Nick Zito trainee can get the distance with his sprint based pedigree. If there is one thing that I have learned from observing the Triple Crown races it is this; Nick Zito is a master at taking down the giants when everyone least expects it. He always lets the public know that a win is not absolutely necessary, that a prep is just what it sounds like; a race to prepare the colt for the big dance. While no one would deny that the Wood Memorial is a big dance, it is not the Kentucky Derby, and that is the ultimate goal for Jackson Bend at this point. I wouldn’t be half surprised to see Jackson Bend pull off a shocker in the Wood and I would be shocked if he didn’t finish in the top three. Calvin Borel gets the mount on Jackson Bend in the Wood.

Schoolyard Dreams looks like the fastest improving colt in the field. After his heartbreaking loss to Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby by the shortest nose in the history of the race, his connections decided to give him another shot in hopes of making it into the Derby field. He is another who seems unlikely to finish out of the top three and if he does, his entry in the Kentucky Derby could be in jeopardy.

Now, for the sake of safety I am going to mention the last two entries in the field because last week when I was making all my “esteemed” proclamations about who was going to win on everyone else’s blogs, I didn’t once mention any long shots and got fried for it when the likes of Dean’s Kitten, Mission Impazzible and Endorsement ran their way to glory. Carnivore and Most Happy Fella round out the Wood Memorial field. Carnivore last won a maiden race by an impressive 7 lengths and Most Happy Fella last took down an optional claimer field. It seems doubtful either one can crack the entry of the “big four”, but anything is possible. Eskendereya seems to be the invincible one here and while Awesome Act has garnered a good amount of support, I tend to like Jackson Bend and Schoolyard Dreams behind Eskendereya for the top three finish.

Lookin At Lucky

Well, we didn’t have long to wait for the return of Champion 2 year old Male Lookin At Lucky. After his incredible Rebel Stakes victory, Bob Baffert is sending Lookin At Lucky right back into the fray when he takes on 9 other contenders in the Santa Anita Derby (gr.1) this weekend. With the dirt question behind him and unarguably answered, Lucky can rest comfortably on his laurels in the Santa Anita Derby and hopefully produce yet another scintillating victory. He will be the overwhelming favorite when post time comes around and rightly so.

Previously undefeated California sensation Caracortado is back after an uncharacteristic third place finish in the San Felipe Stakes. If the pace is a little stronger than it was in the San Felipe Caracortado should be able to launch a much stronger rally in the stretch of the Santa Anita Derby and improve his chances at Kentucky Derby glory.

San Felipe victor Sidney’s Candy is also looking to stake his claim here and a win would most assuredly vault him to the top of many Derby watch lists. His front-running style has so far worked beautifully, but I have a feeling it won’t be enough to hold off the hungry pack this time.

Surprise Sham Stakes (gr.3) winner, Alphies Bet, is also entered. His shocking upset victory in the Sham looked like the real deal and judging by the fact that he previously won his maiden on the turf in the beginning of the year he seems to love synthetics. The Santa Anita Derby is the same distance as the Sham and he drew the farthest outside post for the Derby just like he did for the Sham. It remains to be seen whether or not the scenario changes from there.

The rest of the field is, suffice it to say, a group of long-shots who are led by Cardiff Giant and Skipshot. Cardiff Giant

Caracortado

has been beating a pattern of ever decreasing production this year in his races. He finished second in the San Rafael (gr.3), third in the Southwest (gr.3) and fifth in the Rebel last out. Skipshot took a five horse allowance field by a nose last out and has since posted a fantastic bullet 5 furlong work in :58 2/5 for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.  Another horse to keep an eye on is Setsuko, the second place finisher in the Sham Stakes behind Alphie’s Bet.

The Santa Anita Derby looks like just another Lookin At Lucky party to me, but horse races are never sure things. If the word of trainer Bob Baffert is anything to go by though, we should see a much sharper, stronger and energetic Lookin At Lucky this weekend. Imagine that.

The $500,000 Illinois Derby (gr.3) heralds the return of one of my favorite horses from last year’s two year old crop. Backtalk made a victorious return to the races this year after failing to place in his last two races of 2009, the Hopeful

Backtalk

Stakes and Breeders’ Futurity. The talented son of Smarty Jones will be looking to prove that he has a legitimate shot at emulating his immortal sire’s feat of winning the Kentucky Derby, but first, he has to win the Illinois Derby which is no small feat. The 9 furlong distance of the Illinois Derby will be the farthest Backtalk has traveled to date, but with a trio of good works behind him, I believe the striking Smarty Jones colt is up to the task. His last work at six furlongs came in an astounding time of 1:09.60.

American Lion makes his return to the races here in an attempt to remove some of the considerable tarnish that has gathered on his sleek coat. After starting the year off in the top ten of most every Derby watch list, the son of Tiznow has fallen out of the top tier after posting two dull efforts in California. He switches to dirt in the Illinois Derby for the first time, and some think it could prove to be a turning point for American Lion. If he shows an affinity for dirt here, it will most likely assure him a trip to the Kentucky Derby.

Dave in Dixie also returns to action in the Illinois Derby after a very poor showing on synthetics in the San Felipe. He has showed glimpses of brilliance this year with incredible late kicks in mid-stretch during his races that could prove to be very deadly at longer distances. This race is make it, or break it for the John Sadler trainee.

Two other significant contenders are Gotham second place finisher Yawanna Twist, and Turf Melody. To cover myself yet again I’ll just say this field also has a good amount of long-shots and leave it at that. Now if they win I can come back and say that I mentioned the longshots.

Backtalk was “the horse” for the Kentucky Derby earlier last year after going undefeated through the Bashford Manor (gr.3) and Sanford Stakes (gr.2). The question now is this: Is he really back, or is it all just talk?

The Fantasy Stakes will forever be remembered as the first race in which Rachel Alexandra’s true talent was recognized by the majority of racing fans. This year the cast for the Fantasy is a little more slim, but perhaps no less

Blind Luck

filled with talented and potential-laden fillies. Blind Luck turns in her final performance here before an expected start in the Kentucky Oaks and looks to bounce back from a surprising defeat last out. This filly is as tough as they come and should take this race with ease.

All Due Respect, Tidal Pool and No Such Word are the only three fillies entered against Blind Luck and of the three No Such Word looks like the biggest threat. She was last seen winning the Honeybee Stakes (gr.3) at Oaklawn. She is trained by Cindy Jones, wife of Larry Jones.

All Due Respect placed third in the Pocahontas Stakes (gr.3) last year before breaking her maiden in her fifth attempt.

Tidal Pool looks like the wild card option here. She sports a record of 3 wins, 1 second and 1 third in 9 lifetimes starts. She blew away an allowance field by 8 lengths at Oaklawn this year and is trained by D. Wayne Lukas.

Aside from all the great 3 year old races lining up this weekend, the older horses are also preparing to put on a show. The one you won’t want to miss is the showdown between Munnings and Musket Man in the Carter Handicap. Let the races begin. In closing I want to thank everyone for being so supportive of me when I was “out of contact” last weekend, it meant a lot.

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13 Responses to “A little bit of Luck, Backtalk and Wood”

  1. Hi Brian. I’m happy to see you’re writing again. (I didn’t know if you’d be taking a break this weekend). Great summary. I’m hoping Backtalk pulls a win in the Illinois Derby. (I also like Game Ball as a long shot.)

    • Thanks Jennifer, I’m happy to be back at it so soon!
      I’m with you, I’d love to see Backtalk win this weekend, he was really good early in his 2-year-old season and he looked more like his old self this year.

  2. Maureen said

    eskendereya, jackson bend… lookin at lucky….. thats your three place winners. they are the strongest on the field.

    • Maureen-thanks for stopping in.
      I realize they are 3 of the strongest horses in their respective fields, but I’m not sure why you put Eskendereya and Jackson Bend with Lookin At Lucky. Lookin At Lucky is racing in the Santa Anita Derby while Eskendereya and Jackson Bend are racing in the Wood, they are in separate fields. I agree Eskendereya and Jackson Bend are certainly standouts, but in no means are they assured victory or even placing with Awesome Act and Schoolyard Dreams also running. The reason I chose them is because I honestly believe they will finish in the top three. Sounds obvious I know, but I’ve been touting these three horses since well before the Breeders’ Cup last year and I tend to stick to my favorites.

      • Maureen said

        HHmmmm…… . maybe i should have put these were my favorites for strongest horses as contenders for the kentucky derby, than there wouldnt have been any offense to you and your choices… i guess we will see wont we? either way, all the horses are magnificent and true gladiators.

      • Hi Maureen,
        No Offense taken or intended, I was a little worried my response would sound that way, I apologize. Sometimes it’s hard to put the right “tone” to written words, but believe me when I say I took no offense to your comment. New comments and constructive criticism are always welcome, so please continue to lend your thoughts and opinions and I will lend you me ear! (:

  3. If the Derby was held today, Eskendereya would not make the field of 20. (insert ‘shocked’ emoticon here).

    This as per Art Wilson’s blog:
    http://www.insidesocal.com/horseracing/2010/04/if-derby-was-today-eskendereya.html

    So he must break cleanly and not “pull and 85 in a 50″. ;-)
    Eskendereya is the only 3 year old colt that gets my heart thumping at this point. The potential is limitless.

    • TKS-You would be one to bring up Eightyfiveinafifty seeing as I was so high on him earlier this year!:) Not sure if you noticed but he’s making his first start back since his last fiasco this Saturday at Aqueduct in the Bay Shore, I’m hoping he wins so I at least appear credible!
      I read the same thing about Eskendereya in respect to his earnings being insufficient to earn him a Derby spot as of now. The system seriously needs to be restructured, I feel like some trainers/owners are trying to rush one more prep into some of the colts in order to make sure they can get into the Derby field. There’s no doubt Eskendereya is good enough to get in and I can’t see him finishing worse than 1st or 2nd this weekend.
      Lookin At Lucky, Odysseus and Eskendereya are my three “wow” horses right now, especially Lucky!

  4. LDP said

    I would not count out Schoolyard Dreams at all in the Wood. He got nipped by the talented Odysseus in his last start and his loss before that came to Rule, both were very classy horses. He is a fast improving colt, and I like that his connections switched him to the Wood to see if he could swim with some of the bigger fish in the sea. It tells me they have confidence in him, and because of his last two efforts so do I. I am not a big Eskendereya fan, I think he got off kind of easy with a perfect trip in his last.I don’t take his beyer seriously, especially since Endorsement broke the stakes record at Sunland, with ease and went past the wire driving, and still got a much lower beyer. Also, LaL should’ve had a beyer of at least 101 after how he won the Rebel. Now he gets to face the stiff test he missed from Buddy’s Saint from Awesome Act and Schoolyard.

    Lookin at Lucky wins like he normally does, geared down. He wasn’t geared up against the Rebel field and he still wins after a horrible trip. Sidney’s Candy may get tested a bit more up front, which will give Caracortado a better chance to win. LaL will still get there IMO though.

    In the Illinois, I’m caught between a rock and a hard place because I LOVE both Backtalk and American Lion, and don’t want to root against either. That being said, because of the current trend, w/synthetic horses moving up in their initial dirt try, and the lack of pace, I think American Lion wins. I’ve thought for the longest time, dirt was key for this colt, and now he get it. Hopefully he will prove me right.

    • LDP-I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see Schoolyard Dreams step up to take the win in the Wood either, I believe he is the fastest improving colt in the entire field. I don’t think he’ll win, but I won’t be too surprised if he does.

      Absolutely agree with your Lookin At Lucky analysis, he is miles ahead of the group he faces today I believe.

      I remember you saying how much you wanted a dirt race for American Lion a while back and I tend to agree with you, I think he will improve with the surface switch. Plus the Hawthorne Race Course track usually favors speed running horses so his style will be complimented. I still like Backtalk better than him though and think he will win.

  5. Brian,

    Welcome back. I trust all has been resolved favorably with the family issue.

    Did you see BLIND LUCK??? She’s hands down the best 3y.o. filly. Too bad there weren’t more entrants to push 1-2 up to 7-5. The way she extended on the turn and kept her momentum while running down a fresh leader that got away w/ :24 change opening 1/4. Do you suppose her connections will try the boys in the Derby? I’m thinking she’ll win the Oaks and do the RACHEL Preakness angle.

    The big three races for the boys look like ESKENDEREYA, LOOKIN AT LUCKY, and chaos at Hawthorne.

    I’ve felt AMERICAN LION wasn’t right since his troubled RB Lewis start and I can’t endorse him with lingering health concerns despite the favorable race shape. BACKTALK worked faster than he’s ever run…too close to race day and he’ll be spent in the final furlong despite being the only other entrant with tactical speed. This race will be run like a turf stakes, slow early and sprint home. YAWANNA TWIST ran in spots, better on the straight than the turn and difficulty changing leads. I’m tossing all three favorites.

    DAVE IN DIXIE absolutely wants 9f and will appreciate the class relief away from CARACORTADO, SIDNEY’S CANDY, and LOOKIN AT LUCKY. DAVE has the dirt question to answer, but if his Hol works are any clue the surface will not be a problem. I believe Rosario will be upset at new agent Ron Ebanks after DAVE carries Validivia into the Kentucky Derby after a win in Illinois.

    Enjoy the races!

    • Hi Amateurcapper!

      Yes, it seems like the “family issue” is close to being resolved now. A doctor in NC did a horrible botched up surgery on my grandfather that almost led to his death, but after a series of emergency surgeries it looks like he’s going to pull through. Thank you for asking.

      Yes, I did see Blind Luck in the Fantasy and she was superb! I think they are pretty set on sending her to the Oaks instead of the Derby, but I wish they would reconsider. She certainly looks like she is strong enough to beat the boys and her come-from-behind style would be perfect for the Derby this year with all the speed horses slated to run.

      I think American Lion will improve with the shift to a dirt track, but I don’t think he’ll win. I’m rooting for Backtalk. Even though his 6 furlong work was far too fast for comfort, if he is truly a really good horse he will overcome it and win, which I believe he will. I really liked Dave In Dixie earlier in the year, but his last race kind of threw me. I agree he looks like he’ll excel at the 9 furlong distance and with all the recent synthetic-to-dirt success, he could easily take to the surface switch and steal the win.

      I can’t wait to see Lookin At Lucky today!

  6. IlnoibDho6 said

    Hi there every one, can somebody assist please.

    For what reason will not the links on the top bar of the site page that submit a message work for me?

    Thanks

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